| The Ideas |
The References |
| Very few people have successfully predicted the future. Out
of all the billions of humans who have lived, perhaps only the prophets
of the various religious traditions and a handful of others have this distinction.
Even so, their repute in rational modern thinking has steadily declined.
Our futurists now are primarily science fiction writers - and not even they
claim their forecasts to be accurate. Thus in attempting to analyze things
not yet come, I wil tread carefully, thoughtfully and humbly. |
Links to Information about Prophets:
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| My subject is not the analysis of past trands nor the effectless criticism
in hindsight that has motivated much of social research, though of course
I owe much to that work. Nor do I seek to test theoretical hypotheses against
current conditions. Rather, I am attempting to lay a safe path through the
nearly inevitable developments in global technological "innovation" by providing
a framework for analyzing technologies before they are in widespread use.
I hope his path will be safe for all humankind, including both those who
are gods in the heavens of material influence, and those who are less than
pawns in the dust of absolute poverty. |
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Nevertheless, such a
path, so short it leads only into the nearest future, cannot prescribe
the adoption of some new technology, nor can it condemn the use of some
fantastic process. Rather, the path is knowledge of our collective
options. With this path of knowledge, with a solid and resolute will, we
can come to each new technological development and decide: do we bring
it with us into the future? Or do we leave it by the wayside, perhaps
never to be seen again?
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Under current circumstances, one
can make a strong argument that it is primarily the force of capitalism that guides
these choices. Corporations introduce most technologies into public
consumption with the intent of making a profit. Corporations fund most
research, either basic or applied. Would we have chosen television if we
had known in advance what some of its effects are? It is too late to say
how such an informed collective decision would have gone. The technology
of television has advanced hand in hand with the corporation. Other
technologies show a similar correlation in their development: the
telephone, the automobile, the computer. -- FOOTNOTES --
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Here are some exceptions to innovation by capitalism:
- The space program in the Soviet Union (although I suppose indirectly this was a response to the ascendancy of capitalism).
- The pyramids.
- Most of the innovations/discoveries of the pure sciences.
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| One must note that effectively all public discussion of these "advances"
has occurred significantly after their introduction. The case of science
ficton only serves to drive this point home: science fiction is still about
characters as protagonists, not ideas, not cultures, not technologies. Even
the ground-breaking cyberpunk novels by William Gibson of a dark, post capitalist,
highly technological world, only treats technology itself superficially.
As well, like other persuasive media, science fiction does not encourage
indepth analysis of technologies or their near-term effects. Rather, it
packages a prediction of the future as the subtext of some particular plot
and theme involving anthropomorphic characters. Suspension of disbelief,
necessary to the extreme in science fiction, allows this subtext to enter
our thinking uncritically. |
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| The practice of "futurology" has experienced a gradual increase in popularity
in recent decades. George Orwell in the
past and more recently Alvin Toffler and Arthur C. Clarke and others have
contributed significantly to our thinking about the future. Futurists, as
we often call them, place very noble ideals upon themselves. The future
is something to be determined by choice, how much better it will be if such
choices are well informed. However, futurists tend to become consultants
of various sorts working for big business -- CONFIRM --. As such, a cursory
examination of their work will show a heavy leaning to examining issues
in relation to western cultural norms. One could almost say that a publication
such as The Futurist is merely free advertizing for western industrial
and technological capitalism. There are of course many exceptions -- NOTE
SOME --, and a widespread intent "to be good citizens . . . of the earth"
does exist. -- MORE ON THIS: -- The actual democratic effect of most discussion
is minimal; as Noam Chomsky indicates in Manufacturing Consent, the
scope of discussion is severly limited -- FOOTNOTE COUNTER: need context
and assumptions to have meaningful discourse --. |
George Orwell's 1984 was
popularly looked upon as a prediction of future conditions. An argument
can be made that he was critisizing contemporary conditions more than forcasting. |
Direct criticism of technology has
been limited in the West. Our libertarian tendencies demand access to
any system, method or device that we feel might improve our
personal quality of life. Jerry Mander, in his two books Four
Arguments for the Elimination of Television and In the Absence of
the Sacred, has made some very brave attempts to criticize our
attitudes to technology. His fundamental premise, that technologies are
not ideologically neutral, is so directly counter to the prevailing
attitude that his work at times seems paranoid and sensational. He does
however present a scheme for analyzing technologies. Here are a few of
his "Ten Recommended Attitudes About
Technology":
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1. Since most of what we are told about new
technology comes from its proponents, be deeply sceptical of all
claims.
2. Assume all technology "guilty until proven
innocent."
3. Eschew the idea that technology is neutral or
"value free." Every technology has inherent and identifiable social,
political, and environmental consequences.
. . .
5. Never
judge a technology by the way it benefits you personally. . . . The
operative question is. . . who benefits most? And to what end?
. . .
9. Do not accept the homily that "once the genie is out of the
bottle you cannot put it back," or that rejecting a technology is
impossible. Such attitudes induce passivity and confirm
victimization.
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More on Mander
The other recommendations made by Mander in
In the Absence of the
Sacred tend to be more ideology specific. For example, he asserts
that we should "Make distinctions between technologies that primarily
serve the individual or the small community (e.g., solar energy) and
those that operate on a scale outside of community control (e.g.,
nuclear energy). The latter kind is the major problem of the day."
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Although these may be good guidelines,
they are still unquestionably ideologically motivated as one can see
from the context in which they are presented: Mander passes judgement on
all aspects of the effects that technology has had and warns against
these effects continuing.
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We need to examine
technologies using three general assumptions. The first assumption is
that "the medium is the message." Many others have extended and
interpreted this idea, which was initally expounded by Marshall McLuhan.
It is often confused with the less powerful idea that the medium
influences its own content. I will lend my own thoughts to this idea
with a strong focus on the medium itself rather than whatever content it
may carry. The second assumption I will use is that human rights are of
fundamental concern. We must examine the effects of a technology, if
any, on these rights. A technology that produces a contradiction in the
application of each human's perceived rights will have fundamental
effects on the way in which humanity operates. Finally, we must examine
a technolgy or media in a global context. This context has ever more
affected our lives and it seems that the globalization process will
continue. Though there is no guarantee of this in the long term, over
the next several years, barring a cataclysmic disaster, we will see the
continued use of current technologies to bring humanity closer
together.
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If we look at various types of media, we see
that there is usually more than one way to use the media. This is
particularly true of computational media. Part of the analysis of a
media or technology must address its uses both actual or intended and
potential or unitended. For example, a piano has as its fundamental
purpose the production of sound. It is very difficult to actively use a
piano in any other way (for instance as a baseball bat!). The only other
uses of a piano are as decoration and furniture. These secondary uses
are a consequence of a piano's unintended properties: making a beautiful
sounding piano is expensive, and a piano has a flat surface on which
objects may be placed. The piano's expense contributes to it being a
component of the many other objects used sometimes to prove status and
wealth.
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On the other extreme is the device called television. In
the same way that the fundamental purpose of a piano is to produce
sound, the fundamental purpose of a television is to produce dots on its
screen. It is never used for this purpose alone. Its "useful" side
effect is as a communicator of information: entertainment or news.
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We con now bring in the notion of fascination. This idea is key when
discussing attitudes because a fascination is by implication an
inactive state of interest. Alone, a fascination with something
produces no results. With certain things, a fascination can become
action. For example, if one is fascinated with the game of baseball, one
can, if one so desires, join a baseball league or play with a group of
friends. A fascination iwth other things (such as vampires, magic, etc.)
cannot become active except in a depraved mind.
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The concept of
non-primary uses and the notion of fascination brought together can be
used to understand some very puzzling questions. If we turn again to
television, we see that its secondary effects could be considered useful
and often are. However, the viewer does not control that "use" except in
the most insignificant of ways. The viewer is one important user
of television, but because of the lack of control, that use can only
ever be a fascination. This is an inherent property of the media. It is
simply too expensive to allow every viewer their own channel, production
facilities, and the education to use these facilities. Even the advent
of computers and camcorders do not mitigate this problem. Both seem to
allow a user that control, but again, they do not allow all users
that control due to expense and education and lack of distribution
channels. Nor do the much hyped "500 channels" change the fundamental
lack of control of the user.
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In contrast, the piano used to make
sound, and the television used with the intent of making light, are both
completely under the control of the user. With the piano this feature is
fortunate, allowing the user to learn to make music. With the television
this feature is irrelevant: wwe already have light bulbs to make
light!
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All of the previous comments are in the context of "the
medium is the message" in that the medium shapes its relationship to
individuals. Part of any media's message is a quality of how hard it is
to take a fascination with the media and convert that fascination to
action. A television cannot be used on its own: it needs a production
studio, a broadcaster, and the money and other social structures to
support it. A piano needs only a single person. Even the creation of a
television is different from that of a piano: a television needs a
manufacturing system that will produce the glasswork, the chemicals, the
electronic components, and the power supply in large enough quantities
that making the actual television and its production facilities is
feasible. A piano can be handmade (although they rarely are now). These
social structures of television and the private use of pianos are
the messages of televisions and pianos.
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All these comments about
televisions and pianos are easy to make with 20/20 hindsight. Is it
feasible to make similar comments about technologies that are just now
emerging?
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Examining human rights without dealing with
many related issues is difficult. Fortunately I do not have to start
from scratch on this. In 1948 the United
Nations General Assembly drafted the Universal Declaration of
Human Rights. This document can be considered a global standard for
the ideal of human rights. As such, it is highly ideological. The
negative or positive aspects of any enunciated human right are difficult
to objectively assess. Thus I will assume that the near global nature of
the United Nations, and the broad acceptance of the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights are indication enough that the rights
enshrined therein are important though I refrain from making
specific judgements about the rights themselves. I will only discuss a
few of the rights explicitly here in order to present the two types of
problems that can exist.
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The first type of problem, demonstrated
through Article 19:
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Everyone has the right to freedom
of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions
without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and
ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
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is a problem with the execution of the right in isolation. This right
is obviously particularly appropriate to the study of media. Using
television as an example, we see that this right cannot be
upheld. It is very difficult if not impossible for me personally to
impart information through television regardless of frontiers. The
problem is one of expense: I personally do not have the financial
resources to attract enough attention to give a full exposition of my
ideas should I so desire. Again, please note that I am not attacking the
right in and of itself. The problem is that the media of television is
not compatible with this right.
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NOT FINISHED THIS SECTION
The second type of problem is when the use of a particular media causes
an explicit or implied conflict between the expression of two differing
types of rights. (try article 18)
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The global context of
media is becoming more and more relevant. In Canada, where I am from, a
great deal of concern exists about media imperialism from the United
States (href this) Referring to the need to maintain a culture that is
distinct from that of the United States justifies this concern. The same
concern exists in many other countries. Obviously, media have
international cultural effects.
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As well, the production and use
of media have economic and ecological effects. The economies of the
world are becoming more closely interdependant. A vast change in the
economy of even one country can have serious consequences for all
others. Media, both as tools of communication and as economic entities
in themselves, contribute to the global effects. The ecolobical effects
are surprisingly similar (metaphorically) to the economic effects. If a
particular media is found to have profound ecological consequences in
one country, those effects leak over national boundaries. For example,
the use of paper in newspapers and magazines contributes to
deforestation which in turn affects the capacity of the earth to convert
carbon dioxide into oxygen. The earth's capacity as a whole is affected
thus changing the ecology in places that may not consume paper products
on the same levels.
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I wish to examine seven different
technologies. Here I will only present what they are and an indication
of what my focus will be when analyzing them. These technologies are all
in the process of emerging in the world today but have become neither
widespread nor mature technically. My choice of these technologies comes
from two sources: the focus of mass
media attention on them and my own area of expertise: as a graduate
from a computational science program I am more qualified to comment on
developments in the realm of computer technology. General comments on many emerging technologies have been
made and will continue to be made.
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Other Cool Technologies
Time magazine (July 17, 1995, Michael D. Lemonick) ran a feature section
on up and coming technologies which included comment on the following
developments: hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, high-temperature
superconductivity, genetic engineering, bionics, universal personal
telephones, voice-activated computers, nanotechnology, optical
electronics, virtual reality, and new materials.
Comments by Others on Technology and Media
See, for example, The New Media: The Creation of Cyberspace by
Craig McKie in Communications in Canadian Society 4th ed.,
Benjamin D. Singer, ed.
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Virtual Reality
Virtual Reality has been hyped to no end. The movie
Johnny Mnemonic among many others
presents
us with a technology that is quite beyond what we have not but may
indicate where it will go. In virtual reality a person is able to view
and act in a computer generated three-dimensional world. The degree of
realism in such a world is dependant on both the amount of computer
resources available and the devices that a person sues to access the
fabricated world. Two levels exist at which such a fabrication can take
place. The smaller level is a virtual reality that is "confined" to a
single computer and a single user. Such a system would allow the user to
manipulate the virtual space, but it would be isolated from other users.
The second level is such that the virtual reality space is
electronically distributed over many computers in many physical spaces.
In this second level, a user would be able to manipulate the space and
interact with other users who were "on-line" using the system
simultaneously.
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Here's Links to the Movie
Johnny Mnemonic, Directed by Robert Longo, Produced by Don
Carmody, Screenplay by William Gibson.
1995.
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Both levels of virtual reality exist in a very
crude fashion. The computer game Descent
, which can be played on newish
computers, presents the player with a series of three-dimensional
tunnels. The player flies a craft of some sort through these tunnels
while trying to destroy enemies, rescue prisoners, and collect
equipment. The ability of the user to manipulate the surroundings in the
game is severely limited. Further, the game allows two players using a
modem, or several players on a computer network to play the game
together. One can buy equipment for the game that will allow the players
to view the game in stereoscopic vision giving a very strong impression
of three-dimensionality.
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This is ONE COOL GAME!
Descent and its successors is published by Parallax Software Corporation,
copyright 1995.
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NOT FINISHED THIS SECTIONWhat are
the effects of VR - what is its message? "Reality extension" - rights
need not apply.
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Online Private Data Storage
The capability for storing large quantities of personal or business data
at a remote location is gradually becoming a reality. A computer user
may soon be able to establish what amounts to a data account at a data
bank. The data stored would be accessible through a high speed connection
from the user's computer to the data bank. This online private data
storage would reduce the need for permanent storage devices (such as hard
drives, CDROM's, and tape backup drives) attached directly to the user's
computer. Data banks would reduce the large capital investment necessary
to acquire a reasonable computer system. So far, no one that I am aware
of has a business establishment based solely on the idea of providing a
large common area for datas storage. However, many
service providers and BBS's
provide data storage in limited fashion that may be both public or
private.
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The term "service provider" usually indicates a business establishment
that allows computer users in a particular area to use modems to connect
to the Internet. The amount of private storage that goes along with the
use of these services is usually severly limited in both quantity and in
the type of use that can be made of it. BBS's on the other hand, usually
provide only public storage areas for software packages. A subscriber to
a BBS service can often put data in these public storage areas, but it
must be intended to find its way to other computers.
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Currently, due to the slowness of communication channels, using such a
data bank is impractical as one's only form of permanent storage. It is
conceivable that with advances in satellite and fiber optic development,
data transmission speeds will become fast enough and cheap enough to
allow this within several years, though it is likely that such use would
not become widespread for quite some time.
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Concerns of privacy vs. intellectual property theft. Duplication of data
over globe vs. consolidating data. Data utility - infrastructure needed.
Rights. Global.
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Consumer Computing Devices and the Continuation of the Faster/Cheaper
Process
The cost of purchasing a basic new computer system and associated software
has hovered in the US$1000 to US$3000 range for nearly as long as personal
computers have existed. So far, computers are still not in widespread use
relative to televisions and telephones. In fact, the high price makes it
prohibitive for people in thrid world countries and neighborhoods to buy a
computer of any sort. So far, the process of computer technology becoming
cheaper over time has only lead to a constant increase in the level of
computing power considered the bare minimum. It is possible that this
trend will continue indefinately thus leaving a huge part of the world's
population technology-poor.
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Nevertheless, the technology exists to build a basic computing system that
is approximately one-eighth the price. A cartridge to be plugged into the
various game console systems such as those made by Nintendo or Sega, could
easily fill this role. The availability of such a device would allow a
much larger portion of the population to use computer tools. An inexpensive
device like that described would likely be highly dependant on the existence
of online private data storage like that described in the last section, as
well as utilizing centralized computer processing resources in the
client/server model.
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The client/server model of computing is fairly simple. A large number of
less powerful computers are connected by some means to a more powerful
centralized computer which serves out both data and computer processing
when they are requested.
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Development of Artificial Intelligence
No guarantee exists that we will or will not develop an artificial device
that exhibits human-like intelligence. Some would argue strongly either
way, but no one has conclusively proven its impossibility or demonstrated
a working device. However, the sub-field of artificial intelligence,
which attracts people from many different disciplines
, has a fair amount
of notoriety. The continued increase in the power and sophistication of
computing devices allows for the possibility of at least an approximation.
In fact, over several decades, many systems have been developed which
show some aspect or another of human-like intelligence. These systems
have generally been severly limited in their capacity.
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Mathematicians, philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists and
computer scientists have all contributed to the field of artificial
intelligence. A good introduction to the field from a perspective which
encompasses computer science, mathematics, physics and biology is The
Emperor's New Mind by Roger Penrose.
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Perhaps the most contentious issue with artificial intelligence is the
idea of using an artificially intelligent device as the "perfect"
servant. We must decide if using such a creation in this way is moral,
and we need to understand fully such a device's capability to perhaps
rebel, or perhaps to become superior to humans. These issues are the
subject of many science fiction novels and stories, most notably the
robot stories of Issac Asimov. rights of AI?
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The different media technologies are all starting to become more
intertwined in their use, in their abilities, and in their dependance
on each other. Most notably, computers are now capable of being used as
telephones, low quality televisions, they are capable of providing
people with the daily news, and are used to broadcast or narrowcast
information. The miniaturization of electronic technologies is strongly
contributing to this trend. Replacing all current forms of communication
media with a small hand-held device is not technically inconceivable.
This development has been in the works fictionally for a long time. The
advent of PDA's (Personal Digital Assistants)
with cellular telephone
capabilities is perhaps the newest real increment in this process.
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PDA's are paperback book or smaller sized computers which are used
primarily for taking and transmitting short notes. They generally use
a pen-like device or stylus to allow the user to enter data by
handwriting. The 3Com Palm Pilot and the Apple Newton are examples of
PDA's.
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The final convergence of all these different types of media is still
likely decades away. Many social, economic and political structures
would require sweeping changes to allow such devices to exist effectively.
This development more than any other development discussed here has the
potential to be used in extreme ways. The large amount of economic
resources necessary to complete the process may encourage extremely
centralized control of the final system. However, the potential ability
of the medium to allow people to communicate effectively and to effect
usable work at a distance may encourage an extreme form of individualism
and libertarianism.
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Simplified Computer Programming
The realm of computer science is, like most other academic disciplines,
a highly esoteric field. It is very difficult for a person not
formally initiated to use computers to their full extent as doing so
requires a knowledge of programming. There have been recent
developments to make computers easier to use. The "experts" or
"wizards" that are sometimes included in software packages are a step
in this direction. They allow a user to accomplish a task by providing
step-by-step instructions and examples. In the end the user has
accomplished a task that would previously have taken a knowledge of
programming to complete.
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In order to program a computer, one must learn a programming language
which has its own vocabulary, syntax and semantics. For example, in
the C programming language, to tell the computer to count to ten and
add the numbers as it counts, one would be required to write something
like this:
for(i=1;i<10;i++) sum+=i; |
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Two aspects of development are occurring which are enabling computer
programming to become simplified: the use of computers is becoming more
visually oriented, and the incorporation of artificial intelligence
aspects into software. Conceivably there will come a point where with
a combination of drawing and speaking, a user could give a computer
instructions to accomplish nearly any task.
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Ubiquitous General Purpose Computing Devices
The final identifiable process I will address is the encroachment of
computing devices into every area of human endeavor. The terminus of
this process is a situation not unlike that portrayed in Star Trek in
which one need only speak and a computer will be there to answer. One
can imagine walking down a street thinking about something and simply
asking the "air" to clarify some point or provide some correlation to
one's thoughts. Is this ubiquity a positive thing? What sorts of
effects might it have on society? We must examine these questions
before we find them suddenly no longer askable because they have been
answered in a way we did not expect or want.
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The introduction of each new media produces consequences that may be
entirely independent of the actual message that goes through it.
Marshall McLuhan wrote,
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Nobody wants a motorcar till there are motorcars, and nobody is
interested in TV until there are TV programs. This power of technology
to create its own world of demand is not independent of technology
being first an extension of our own bodies and senses. When we are
deprived of our sense of sight, the other senses take up the role of
sight in some degree. But the need to use the senses that are available
is as insistent as breathing--a fact that makes sense of the urge to
keep radio and TV going more or less continuously. The urge to
continuous use is quite independent of the "content" of public programs
or of the private sense life, being testimony to the fact that
technology is part of our bodies. (1964)
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